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Here’s the 11th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

There’s a quiet shift happening in the U.S.-China arms race that no one is discussing — and it has nothing to do with aircraft carriers or missile counts.

It relates to people.

Specifically, the people shaping the future of warfare.

In mid-March 2026, three of China’s leading defense scientists, including Zhao Xiangeng (nuclear weapons), Wu Manqing (radar and metamaterials), and Wei Yiyin (missile systems), were quietly removed from the Chinese Academy of Engineering’s website.

No retirement notices. No obituaries. Just gone.

Days later, hypersonics expert Yan Hong, a leading figure in plasma aerodynamics, died suddenly at just 56 years old.

On its own, this would seem like another obscure episode in China’s ongoing internal purges. But then you observe what’s happening here in the United States, and you notice a similar eerie pattern emerging among scientists working on advanced military technology development.

Over the past year, a troubling pattern has surfaced: scientists and defense-connected personnel in plasma physics, advanced materials, aerospace systems, and related fields have been murdered, vanished, or died under highly unusual circumstances.

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Here’s the 10th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

As the Iran War unfolds, it’s important to understand that the similarities we see with the Iraq war have little to do with America itself.

It has to do with the unwarranted influence of Israel upon American politics — specifically upon the Republican Party, which has essentially become a front organization for the Right-wing Israeli Likud party.

Don’t take my word for it.

Here’s Joe Kent, one of the most honorable and competent national security professionals in the country today, resigning as head of the National Counterterrorism Center.

Pay close attention to the middle of that explosive letter:

Early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined your America First platform and sowed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran. This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States, and that should you strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory. This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq War that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women.

Keep that bit in your mind — because I had the pleasure of interviewing former Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) leader, Gary Vogler, about his excellent book, Israel, Winner of the 2003 Iraq Oil War: Undue Influence, Deceptions, and the Neocon Energy Agenda (Libertarian Institute Press), and he revealed to me just what the Israeli interest in Iraq was — and why more than 4,000 young Americans and more than $2 trillion over 20 years were sent into the cauldron of the (failed) Iraq War.

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Here’s the 9th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

The ongoing disruption of global shipping in the Red Sea—driven by Houthi missile and drone attacks—may soon trigger an entirely new conflict far from Yemen itself. The Horn of Africa is emerging as the next geopolitical flashpoint, where Ethiopia appears increasingly interested in securing direct access to the Red Sea.

And that ambition could mean war with Eritrea.

For landlocked Ethiopia, the strategic calculus is simple: without a coastline, it cannot project power or protect its economic lifelines. But with the Houthis effectively threatening one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors, access to the Red Sea is no longer just about trade.

It is now about war.

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Here’s the 8th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

The most striking feature of the current war between the United States and Iran is not simply the scale of the fighting. It is the uncomfortable strategic question that now hangs over the entire conflict: what does this war actually achieve for the United States?

In Washington, some officials have attempted to frame the war as part of a broader strategy to deter China. The argument is that a powerful American response in the Middle East demonstrates resolve and signals to Beijing that the United States remains willing to use force to defend its interests. On paper, that argument may sound plausible. In reality, however, the war appears to be exposing the very weaknesses that China has spent years preparing to exploit.

The first problem is: munitions.

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Here’s the 7th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

President Donald Trump did exactly what I told you he was going to do: lull the Islamic Republic of Iran into a false sense of security by offering to negotiation one last time and then launch strikes against the Iranians when they least expected it.

Many think that Iran has received its just desserts. Undoubtedly, Iran has a long history of hostility toward the United States — but it takes two to tango.

Nevertheless, the United States finds itself at war.

No matter what President Trump says or what the Israelis promise about this being a relatively quick, no-boots-on-the-ground war, no war plan survives first contact with the enemy. And the first major crack in the president’s war plan is beginning to form — with direct and immediate implications for you and your pocketbook.

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Here’s the 6th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

On February 27th, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee reportedly ordered embassy staff to begin clearing out within 24 hours. That is not a routine bureaucratic shuffle. That is what governments do when they believe war is imminent.

The move followed a “last-ditch” diplomatic encounter between Jared Kushner, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian officials. By all indications, it was less a negotiation than a recitation of demands: surrender your nuclear program, abandon ballistic missiles, end support for proxies — or face annihilation at the hands of the U.S.-Israeli alliance.

That is not deterrence. That is: compellence. And compellence is inherently escalatory.

I’ve argued for years — most extensively in my book The Shadow War — that the Islamic Republic will never publicly surrender its nuclear ambitions. Not simply because of Israel or the United States, but because Tehran seeks a credible deterrent against Sunni Arab rivals. Regimes surrounded by adversaries do not voluntarily disarm.

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Here’s the 5th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

Donald Trump did not return to power promising stability. He returned promising to redraw the map of the Western Hemisphere.

From talk of buying Greenland and folding Canada into the Union, to forcing China out of the Panama Canal, backing Javier Milei in Argentina, toppling Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and tightening the screws on Cuba, Trump’s agenda sounded to critics like imperial fantasy.

But taken together, these moves reveal something far more serious: a deliberate strategy to restore uncontested American dominance in its own hemisphere.

It’s called the “Donroe Doctrine” — a mocking name provided by the left-wing press. In reality, it is the Monroe Doctrine reborn for the age of great-power competition—and this time, Washington is enforcing it with hard power.

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Welcome to the fourth article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

In 2012, as Mexico’s drug war raged under President Felipe Calderón, a senior official in Chihuahua admitted something many suspected: the CIA (he claimed) actually “managed” the drug trade in Mexico and across Latin America.

The implication was that the violence consuming the country from 2006-2012 was not merely criminal chaos, but a byproduct of covert geopolitical strategy. While shocking to some people, that allegation (made to Al Jazeera) was hardly unprecedented. For decades, journalists and investigators have explored alleged links between elements of the U.S. intelligence community and Latin American narcotics networks.

Mexican cartels have demonstrated extraordinary resilience, operational sophistication, and access to the American market (the largest narcotics consumer base on Earth). It might be because they’re just so evil. Or it might be because they’ve received help over the years through covert contacts in the largest security state just north of Mexico.

With roughly 105,000 Americans dying annually from drug overdoses, Washington’s long-standing reluctance — until recently — to formally designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations raises uncomfortable questions about policy priorities and strategic intent.

Today, those questions feel newly urgent.

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Welcome to the third article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

Does anyone know the whereabouts of Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum?

Rumors abound that Sheinbaum has been exfiltrated from the presidential compound in Mexico City to a warship off the coast of Mexico. On social media, there’s some debate as to whether the Mexican president was taken to a nearby Mexican Navy or US Navy warship.

Others argue that this is not true at all, and she remains very much in charge of the situation in Mexico City.

But the whole scenario unfolding with Mexico’s leadership is very odd.

As of Monday morning (Feb 23), Sheinbaum’s office issued only a cursory statement on its official social media account about how there was “absolute coordination with the governments of all states; we must remain informed and calm,” emphasizing that “activities are proceeding normally throughout most of the country.”

Where’s the official presidential statement on camera? Why isn’t Sheinbaum taking the reins — and doing so in a public way to reassure the understandably frightened Mexican public?

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Welcome to the second article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

We should all be sending our gratitude to the current United States ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee. Because of him, the world was granted at least a few more days of reprieve from the war drums beating in Washington and Jerusalem.

During a contentious two-hour interview with former Fox News host-turned-podcaster Tucker Carlson, Huckabee effectively suggested it was the official U.S. position that Israel should be allowed to annex much of the surrounding Arab world.

According to Huckabee, most of the Middle East was promised to the descendants of Abraham. Since modern Israel represents those descendants in his Christian Zionist view, the United States is helping fulfill Yahweh’s plan by preparing the ground for a Greater Israel.

He also denied that more than 50,000 Gazans had been killed in Israeli operations following the 10/7 attacks.

Regardless of whether one believes Israel’s offensives were justified, there remains a broad international consensus accusing the IDF of genocide and ethnic cleansing in Gaza, using the Hamas attacks as pretext. Independent international organizations estimate that more than 100,000 people—militants and civilians—have died since the offensive began.

Huckabee further claimed that U.S. troops were more brutal toward civilians during the 25-year Global War on Terror than Israeli forces have been in Gaza.

In short, the sitting U.S. ambassador publicly condoned Israeli irredentism, framed it as divinely mandated, and suggested Israeli conduct has been more humane than that of American troops.

That alone raises the question: whose interests is Huckabee representing in Jerusalem?

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Welcome to the first article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.

Across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, something remarkable—and deeply unsettling—is happening.

According to Politico, large majorities in each of these Western countries believe the world is becoming more dangerous. Even more striking, respondents in the U.S., Canada, Britain, and France now see the outbreak of World War III within the next five years as more likely than not.

Public opinion is not always a reliable predictor of geopolitical reality.

But it can be a helpful measure of where things are going. “If you will it, it is no dream,” was Theodor Herzl’s motto. In quantum physics, the “Observer Effect” occurs when measuring or observing a particle alters its state, forcing a quantum system to switch from a wave-like superposition of multiple possibilities to a single, defined particle state.

In other words, with enough people believing that a third world war is upon us, it just might make that nightmare become a reality. What’s more, the growing expectation of global war is not paranoia. It is a rational response to a world in which deterrence is eroding, great-power rivalry is intensifying, and regional conflicts increasingly resemble rehearsal stages for something far larger.

Don’t take my word for it. Just look at the propulsive highs that commodities, like gold and silver are experiencing. Remember the blatant way in which the United States kidnapped Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in the early dawn hours of January 3rd, 2026.

That move was, clearly, largely about oil.

Similarly, the current military moves by the Trump administration in Iran are obviously predicated upon knocking out a regime in Iran that supplies 15% of China’s oil and natural gas.

And then look at the way in which rare earths have become such a hot button among the world’s great powers (and how China is dominating that sector at America’s expense).

Everywhere we turn, metals, defense, energy, food, and even water are becoming the primary points of focus for the world’s investors and militaries. You see this fixation on these fundamentals of life by the world’s elite when they, too, believe—know—some major geopolitical event is about to occur.

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Everything you’ve been told about U.S. foreign policy, America’s national security, and the state of the world is wrong.

I didn’t reach that conclusion lightly.

For more than a decade, I’ve moved in and out of government, media, academia, and the national-security world — covering defense and foreign policy for outlets such as The National Interest and Asia Times.

My reporting has been read and debated globally.

I’ve also written four national bestselling books on American strategy and security—and I’m working on my fifth.

In Winning Space, I argued for an independent U.S. Space Force before it existed. Analysts at RAND called me “the guru of Space Dominance,” and the book laid out a roadmap for how America could maintain leadership in the ultimate high ground.

In The Shadow War, I warned that Iran’s confrontation with Israel was escalating toward a catastrophic regional conflict involving the United States—and that only a strategic realignment through the Abraham Accords could prevent it.

In Biohacked, written before the worst global fallout of COVID-19, I described the pandemic as a “Biological 9/11” and warned that biotechnology and bio-competition would become central battlegrounds between the United States and China.

And in A Disaster of Our Own Making, I challenged the consensus on Ukraine, arguing that Western strategy was pushing the conflict toward a Russian victory—and exposing how U.S. and NATO policy helped create the crisis.

Before all this, I worked on Capitol Hill as a congressional staffer.

Later, I served as an occasional Subject Matter Expert for the Department of the Air Force, briefing military and intelligence leaders on how emerging technologies reshape national security—what some call “geotechnology.”

I’ve traveled to military facilities across the country delivering those warnings.

One senior official described me as:“A panic-and-anxiety-producing scholar who tells us what we don’t want to hear but need to know.”

That reputation hasn’t always made me popular.

I’ve been labeled a “contrarian” by establishment voices eager to dismiss uncomfortable analysis — even as my insights have been sought by leaders in both Republican and Democratic administrations.

But the truth is simpler: I’m not a contrarian. I’m a dissenter.

I dissent from the bipartisan foreign-policy consensus that has taken the United States from post–Cold War dominance to strategic overextension—while rivals like China steadily close the gap. And in this dissenting view, one finds the truth about what’s happening (and meaningful solutions).

Across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, Washington’s policies have too often produced the same result: costly misadventures that benefit a narrow circle of connected interests in Washington and New York while ordinary Americans bear the risks and consequences.

That’s why I’m launching NatSec Guy, a new section inside Emerald Robinson’s widely read Substack, with me—Brandon J. Weichert—as editor.

NatSec Guy will deliver direct, unfiltered analysis of U.S. foreign policy, national security, and the global environment:

What’s really happening.

Who’s actually driving decisions.

What risks lie ahead.

And how it affects you.

While much of the media cheers America toward another expensive, unwinnable war of choice in the Middle East, NatSec Guy will do the opposite.

I’ll break down what’s truly at stake, identify the risks Washington won’t talk about, and show you where to focus before the next crisis hits.

Because to understand foreign policy, you must understand the decision-makers, the incentives shaping them, and the networks operating behind the scenes. Then you begin to look at the world as they do. And then you can understand, even anticipate, what next moves will be made.

No slogans. No sacred cows. Just reality.

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