The World Thinks War Is Coming: It's Probably Right
Why the rising fear of World War III signals a system already breaking.
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Welcome to the first article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.
Across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, something remarkable—and deeply unsettling—is happening.
According to Politico, large majorities in each of these Western countries believe the world is becoming more dangerous. Even more striking, respondents in the U.S., Canada, Britain, and France now see the outbreak of World War III within the next five years as more likely than not.
Public opinion is not always a reliable predictor of geopolitical reality.
But it can be a helpful measure of where things are going. “If you will it, it is no dream,” was Theodor Herzl’s motto. In quantum physics, the “Observer Effect” occurs when measuring or observing a particle alters its state, forcing a quantum system to switch from a wave-like superposition of multiple possibilities to a single, defined particle state.
In other words, with enough people believing that a third world war is upon us, it just might make that nightmare become a reality. What’s more, the growing expectation of global war is not paranoia. It is a rational response to a world in which deterrence is eroding, great-power rivalry is intensifying, and regional conflicts increasingly resemble rehearsal stages for something far larger.
Don’t take my word for it. Just look at the propulsive highs that commodities, like gold and silver are experiencing. Remember the blatant way in which the United States kidnapped Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in the early dawn hours of January 3rd, 2026.
That move was, clearly, largely about oil.
Similarly, the current military moves by the Trump administration in Iran are obviously predicated upon knocking out a regime in Iran that supplies 15% of China’s oil and natural gas.
And then look at the way in which rare earths have become such a hot button among the world’s great powers (and how China is dominating that sector at America’s expense).
Everywhere we turn, metals, defense, energy, food, and even water are becoming the primary points of focus for the world’s investors and militaries. You see this fixation on these fundamentals of life by the world’s elite when they, too, believe—know—some major geopolitical event is about to occur.
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