Who Wanted This War With Iran?
Trump started another Middle East war at precisely the wrong strategic moment.
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Here’s the 6th article in our new section on international military affairs: NatSec Guy.
On February 27th, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee reportedly ordered embassy staff to begin clearing out within 24 hours. That is not a routine bureaucratic shuffle. That is what governments do when they believe war is imminent.
The move followed a “last-ditch” diplomatic encounter between Jared Kushner, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian officials. By all indications, it was less a negotiation than a recitation of demands: surrender your nuclear program, abandon ballistic missiles, end support for proxies — or face annihilation at the hands of the U.S.-Israeli alliance.
That is not deterrence. That is: compellence. And compellence is inherently escalatory.
I’ve argued for years — most extensively in my book The Shadow War — that the Islamic Republic will never publicly surrender its nuclear ambitions. Not simply because of Israel or the United States, but because Tehran seeks a credible deterrent against Sunni Arab rivals. Regimes surrounded by adversaries do not voluntarily disarm.
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